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Metodenotat for boligmarkedsstatistikken

Methodology note on the housing supply statistics of the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks.

Data applied in the Housing Supply Statistics

The Association of Danish Mortgage Banks publishes in cooperation with RealView® - e-nettet/RealviewTNI a selection of monthly key figures on the market for private residential property. The key figures are calculated on the basis of observations of owner-occupied dwellings advertised for sale on the Internet. The compiled data are processed in RealView® in cooperation with other industry participants. Data products based on RealView® are used on a daily basis by a range of key participants in and around the property market, including ministries, financial market participants, real estate agents etc.

The data basis is estimated to cover at least 95 per cent of all owner-occupied dwellings offered for sale on the Internet.

Based on the data collected, six key figures are calculated each month, which should be seen as indicators of the development in listing prices, times-on-market, displacements in market volumes, etc.

The data set is divided into two categories for each month: Dwellings which have been delisted from the Internet during the month and dwellings which are still advertised for sale on the Internet at the end of the month.

Key figures of the housing supply statistics

Remaining dwellings at the end of the month
Listed dwellings The number of dwellings observed on the Internet at the end of the month
Listing times  The average number of days for which the remaining dwellings have been offered for sale on the Internet (weighted by housing stock)
Listing prices The average, advertised price of the remaining dwellings (calculated per square metre and weighted by housing stock)
Delisted dwellings during the month
Delisted dwellings The number of dwellings which were withdrawn from the Internet during the month
Times-on-market
 The average number of days for which the delisted dwellings were offered for sale on the Internet (weighted by housing stock)
Final listing prices  The average last listing price of the dwellings which were withdrawn from the Internet during the month (calculated per square metre and weighted by housing stock)


 

The calculation method is described in detail under "Methodology and definitions".

The key figures are published on the website of the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks on the 8th working day of each month.

Purpose of the statistics

The housing supply statistics are a supplement to the Housing Market statistics published by Statistics Denmark and the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks. These statistics are based on actual transaction prices. The housing supply statistics do not include transaction prices, only the prices at which the dwellings are offered for sale on the Internet. The statistics should be seen as a supplement to the statistics of actual prices. However, the housing supply statistics offer the advantage that they can be published relatively quickly after the end of each month and thereby serve as a current indicator of the development in the housing market.

The statistics contain key figures on initial and final listing prices. They also contain monthly indicators of times-on-market and the number of dwellings withdrawn from the market in the period reviewed. The key figures can be seen as indicators of selling times and number of sales, and they are not published systematically in any other statistics.

Methodology and definitions

The six key figures calculated on the basis of observations on the Internet are defined as follows:

  1. Listed dwellings
    The number of owner-occupied dwellings which are still advertised for sale on the Internet at the end of the month.
  2. Listing times
    The listing time is the total period of time for which a dwelling has been advertised for sale on the Internet. The average listing time is determined at the end of the current month for owner-occupied dwellings which have not been withdrawn from the Internet during the month. A shorter average listing time may be an indication that owner-occupied dwellings are sold faster, but may also result from the addition of many new dwellings in the relevant month relative to the housing stock. That will reduce the average listing time.
  3. Listing prices
    The listing price is the price at which a dwelling is advertised for sale on the Internet in a given month. The listing price is determined as the average of the current month for owner-occupied dwellings not withdrawn from the Internet during the month. Thus, if the listing price of a dwelling is changed during the month, the dwelling will be included at the average price. The listing price is calculated per square metre.
  4. Number of delisted dwellings
    The number of owner-occupied dwellings which have been withdrawn from the Internet during the month. A dwelling is regarded as withdrawn if it has been removed and has not been observed again with the same real estate agent by the fifth weekday of the following calendar month. If the dwelling is observed with another real estate agent, the dwelling will be included in the statistics as withdrawn.
  5. Times-on-market
    The total period of time for which an owner-occupied dwelling has been observed on the Internet before delisting. Time-on-market is determined for owner-occupied dwellings which have been withdrawn from the Internet during the month. The average time-on-market in May, for instance, is calculated on the basis of the dwellings withdrawn from the Internet in the month of May.
  6. Final listing prices
    The final listing price is the listing price advertised at the time when the dwelling is withdrawn from the Internet. The final listing price is determined for owner-occupied dwellings which have been withdrawn from the Internet during the month. The final listing price is calculated per square metre.

The key figures are published for Denmark as a whole and for regions, subregions and municipalities for the property categories detached and terraced houses, owner-occupied flats and holiday homes.

Definition of dwelling area

The housing supply statistics use the number of square metres of the owner-occupied dwellings stated in the listings on the Internet. For detached and terraced houses as well as holiday homes, the area registered in the Danish register of building and dwellings (BBR) is used, while for owner-occupied flats the area registered in the Danish Land Registry is used. Thus, as the definition of a square metre differs from the definition used in the Housing Market statistics, the square metre prices of the two statistics are not directly comparable.

Calculation of key figures

The number of listed and delisted dwellings are simple counts of dwellings in the two categories "remaining dwellings at the end of the month" and "delisted dwellings during the month". Listing times, listing prices, times-on-market and final listing prices are simple averages at municipality level, whereas for regions, subregions and at national level, the values are weighted by the housing stock. The weighting corresponds to the method used in the Housing Market statistics of the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks.

The weights applied are the housing stock in the municipalities for the relevant type of dwelling. The consequence of weighting the statistics is that, viewed separately, they will not be affected by displacements in the composition of the housing supply in the municipalities. This means that the listing prices, for example, are not affected in the upward direction merely because a relatively high number of dwellings are put up for sale in one month in Copenhagen where prices are generally markedly above the national average. If the statistics are not weighted, it may be more difficult to determine whether variations in times-on-market, listing times, listing prices or delisting prices at national, regional or subregional level result from actual changes in housing market activity or from displacements in the composition of the housing supply. The weighting facilitates a comparison of data over time.

Basis of weighting

The housing stock statistics are produced by Statistics Denmark and are determined at the beginning of the year. The basis of weighting applied in the housing supply statistics is the housing stock determined at the beginning of the preceding year.

In the basis of weighting, owner-occupied flats are determined as "owner-occupied flats" in the property categories "detached houses", "terraced houses", "multi-dwelling houses" and "occupied weekend cabins" in the housing stock of Statistics Denmark. The reason is that Statistics Denmark does not operate with a separate property category for owner-occupied flats.

Detached and terraced houses correspond to the two property categories "detached houses" and "terraced houses" less the number of owner-occupied flats in these property categories.

Holiday homes are "occupied weekend cabins" less the number of owner-occupied flats in weekend cabins.

Reservations

It would be natural to use the key figures of the housing supply statistics as indicators of the development in the private residential market. However, the housing supply statistics are not equivalent to sales statistics as they do not include actual selling prices, selling times or number of transactions.

The housing supply statistics consist of listing prices as opposed to the Housing Market statistics published by Statistics Denmark and the Association of Danish Mortgage Banks, which are based on actual transaction prices. That makes a huge difference. In periods of high growth in the housing market, bidding rounds where potential buyers make bids that are higher than the listing price are not uncommon. Conversely, in sluggish periods in the housing market, the listing prices are often marked down to varying degrees. These aspects are not captured by the final listing prices.

The key figures for times-on-market and number of delisted properties may be regarded as indicators of selling times and the number of owner-occupied dwellings sold. However, the fact that a dwelling is withdrawn from the Internet does not necessarily imply that it was sold. Perhaps the owner decided to keep the dwelling either for themselves or to lent out, or to sell it without the assistance of a professional real estate agent, for example through an online marketplace such as Den Blå Avis, or to switch to another real estate agent. The housing supply statistics do not currently take this into account. Therefore, the two key figures should be regarded as indicators only.

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